Preseason Rankings
Arizona St.
Pac-12
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#25
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.4#15
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#56
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 3.3% 0.9%
#1 Seed 7.2% 12.8% 4.5%
Top 2 Seed 14.8% 23.9% 10.3%
Top 4 Seed 28.4% 42.0% 21.7%
Top 6 Seed 40.9% 56.6% 33.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.9% 84.5% 64.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 65.1% 80.2% 58.3%
Average Seed 5.8 5.0 6.4
.500 or above 83.7% 93.0% 79.1%
.500 or above in Conference 82.5% 89.5% 79.0%
Conference Champion 22.9% 30.4% 19.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.5% 1.5%
First Four3.8% 2.6% 4.4%
First Round69.1% 83.3% 62.2%
Second Round48.1% 62.3% 41.1%
Sweet Sixteen25.9% 35.5% 21.2%
Elite Eight13.0% 18.7% 10.2%
Final Four6.3% 9.8% 4.6%
Championship Game3.2% 5.1% 2.2%
National Champion1.5% 2.4% 1.0%

Next Game: Baylor (Neutral) - 32.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 6
Quad 26 - 210 - 8
Quad 35 - 115 - 9
Quad 42 - 017 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 2   Baylor L 74-79 33%    
  Nov 28, 2020 339   Houston Baptist W 109-78 99.9%   
  Dec 03, 2020 107   @ California W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 10, 2020 36   San Diego St. W 77-72 69%    
  Dec 13, 2020 177   @ Grand Canyon W 85-74 84%    
  Dec 22, 2020 67   Utah W 82-74 75%    
  Mar 08, 2021 68   @ Washington W 81-79 57%    
  Mar 08, 2021 129   @ Washington St. W 86-78 76%    
  Mar 08, 2021 27   UCLA W 78-75 61%    
  Mar 08, 2021 57   USC W 83-76 73%    
  Mar 08, 2021 21   @ Oregon L 75-79 39%    
  Mar 08, 2021 115   @ Oregon St. W 80-73 71%    
  Mar 08, 2021 38   Arizona W 82-77 67%    
  Mar 08, 2021 107   California W 81-69 84%    
  Mar 08, 2021 31   Stanford W 79-75 64%    
  Mar 08, 2021 50   @ Colorado W 79-78 52%    
  Mar 08, 2021 67   @ Utah W 79-77 56%    
  Mar 09, 2021 21   Oregon W 78-76 57%    
  Mar 09, 2021 115   Oregon St. W 83-70 84%    
  Mar 09, 2021 27   @ UCLA L 75-78 40%    
  Mar 09, 2021 57   @ USC W 80-79 53%    
  Mar 09, 2021 68   Washington W 84-76 74%    
  Mar 09, 2021 129   Washington St. W 89-75 88%    
  Mar 09, 2021 38   @ Arizona L 79-80 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.5 5.2 5.8 4.7 2.7 0.9 22.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 5.5 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 4.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 3.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.6 3.1 0.8 0.1 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.8 2.7 0.5 0.1 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.9 3.0 4.5 5.8 7.0 8.8 9.7 10.5 10.9 10.1 9.6 7.2 5.0 2.7 0.9 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 99.7% 2.7    2.7 0.1
18-2 94.4% 4.7    4.2 0.5 0.0
17-3 80.2% 5.8    4.2 1.4 0.1
16-4 54.5% 5.2    2.7 2.1 0.4 0.0
15-5 24.7% 2.5    1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0
14-6 8.6% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.9% 22.9 15.8 5.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 66.8% 33.2% 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.7% 100.0% 52.2% 47.8% 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.0% 100.0% 44.4% 55.6% 1.7 2.3 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.2% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 2.5 1.7 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.6% 100.0% 27.3% 72.7% 3.6 0.6 1.7 2.5 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.1% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 5.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.9% 98.9% 15.9% 82.9% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.7%
13-7 10.5% 93.0% 12.4% 80.6% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.5 2.3 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.7 92.0%
12-8 9.7% 81.0% 7.5% 73.4% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.9 79.4%
11-9 8.8% 55.0% 4.8% 50.1% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.0 52.7%
10-10 7.0% 24.8% 3.4% 21.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.2 22.2%
9-11 5.8% 5.5% 1.6% 3.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.5 4.0%
8-12 4.5% 1.6% 1.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4
7-13 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.0
6-14 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 70.9% 16.7% 54.2% 5.8 7.2 7.6 6.8 6.8 6.2 6.3 6.1 6.4 5.5 4.5 3.7 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 29.1 65.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 85.3 14.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 85.7 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 80.5 19.5